CHINA'S DEFENCE: "STAY AWAY"

THE $5 BILLION,
4-ACRE PROBLEM

Valiant Shield was a US military war game held 19-24 June 2006 in the Pacific Ocean involving 22,000 personnel, 280 aircraft, and 30 ships, including the supercarriers USS Kitty Hawk, USS Abraham Lincoln, and USS Ronald Reagan. It was the largest US military exercise in Pacific waters since the Vietnam War, and the first time observers from the People's Republic of China were allowed to view U.S. war games. China sent a ten-person delegation including one high-ranking officer each from its navy, army, and air force, as well as officials from its foreign ministry. According to USA Today, Chinese military observers said that observing the exercises gave them a better understanding of U.S. weapons and tactics. [Wikipedia]

What the Chinese observers 'better understood' was the size of their targets: the US aircraft carriers' 4-acre flight decks, each of which cost $5 billion to build and billions more to operate.  The only question was, how to hit them?  Answering that question took 15 years and resulted in an entirely new class of defensive weapon, the ballistic-cruise DF21D 'Carrier Killer' missile.  To understand its significance we must first understand the role of capital ships in general and aircraft carriers in particular.

Capital ships are symbols of prestige and are rarely put at risk because of potential damage to national morale, not to mention capital cost: replacing the USS Ronald Reagan today would take 7 years and cost $8 billion.  The US has freely operated its carriers because of their powerful protective battle groups and conventional missile defenses.  Knowing this, Chinese engineers developed a $1 million unconventional ballistic missile accurate to within 50 meters at a range of 2,700 km. and against which there is no defense.  A ballistic missile has a high trajectory, usually leaving the earth's atmosphere and literally falling vertically upon its target. The DF21D carries a 500 kg. conventional or nuclear payload, land- or submarine-launched.  For the cost of one carrier the Chinese can build 10,000 DF21Ds capable of sinking the entire Pacific Fleet long before it comes within operational range of the Chinese coast.

THE $1 MILLION SOLUTION

"One source familiar with the US Navy classified briefing said that while anti-ship cruise missiles and other threats were known to exist, "those aren't the worst". The new threat which "didn't exist a couple years ago", is a "land-launched ballistic missile that converts to a cruise missile".  Other sources confirmed that a new, classified missile threat is being briefed at very high levels.  One admiral, said another source, was told that his ships should simply "stay away. There are no options." --Defense News, August 2008.

The US Department of Defense confirmed (2011) that China has developed and reached initial operating capability  of a conventionally-armed high hypersonic land-based anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) based on the DF-21.  This is the world's first ASBM and the world's first weapons system capable of targeting a moving aircraft carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers.


These combine maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) with a terminal guidance system. The launch of the Jianbing-5/YaoGan-1 and Jianbing-6/YaoGan-2 satellites in 2005 gives the Chinese targeting information from SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and visual imaging respectively.

The upgrades greatly enhance China's ability to conduct sea-denial operations to prevent US carriers from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. A professor at the U.S. Naval War College says that carrier-killing missiles underscore that the U.S. can no longer assume naval supremacy as it has since the end of World War II.--Wikipedia

Pakistani Intelligence reports that PLAN's retired intelligence ship Yuanwang 4 was sunk by a DF21 missile in one test, which is why the US Navy rates the DF21 as having reached 'initial operational capability': "Before the test, one cube reflector and lots of antennas were fitted to Yuanwang 4 to increase its radar cross-section. Thus the RCS of Yuanwang 4 seemed as large as an aircraft carrier when seen by radar. In the test of AC-killer missile DF21, Yuanwang 4 could play the role of the target aircraft carrier."

Though the US Navy naturally views this development with concern, it is clearly defensive and rules out a major source of potential conflict, thus contributing to world peace.