China, Hong Kong, and Edward Snowdon

Bearing in mind that this is a political case, and that all politics is local politics, here's my preferred

China, Hong Kong, and Edward Snowdon

scenario for how the NSA/Edward Snowdon/Hong Kong drama will play out: "Hong Kong" – used by the West for so long as a stick to beat China – will now be used as a stick to beat the West.

The CCP will take an ostensible 'hands off' approach to the whole affair, which looks good to Taiwan as it prepares for reunification with the mainland. And Taiwan is the key to this drama, as it is to all of China's foreign policy. The sequence will be a very public form of Chinese water torture:

1. The US will apply to Hong Kong to extradite Mr. Snowdon. 
2. Mr. Snowdon will appeal to the Government of Hong Kong.
3. In keeping with Hong Kong's tradition of "free speech" the Government of Hong Kong will allow his appeal and set a court date for an initial hearing three months thence.
4. The public hearing will allow Mr. Snowdon to air – in front of the world press – his side of the story, along with new revelations – thus keeping the scandal alive in the Western media.
5. The judge will permit Mr. Snowdon's appeal to go ahead and will set a court date for initial submissions 3 months thence.
6. Rinse and repeat for 3–5 years. An excruciating process for the USA and a deeply gratifying one for the CCP
7. The Government of China will wash its hands of the matter, claiming that the 'one country two systems' policy prevents their interference.

Hong Kong has long served as the base for Western sedition and spying on China, with the USA alone pouring billions of dollars into it and where US ambassadors routinely advocate the overthrow of the CCP. The irony of the situation – and the collateral payoff in terms of Taiwanese reactions – is truly wonderful.

Of course, the USA could foresee this sequence and decide simply to assassinate Mr. Snowdon, as he acknowledges. But that's another matter.